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Balance Matrix v4 - Final Simulation
This document contains updated simulation results after implementing:
- Drukhari: Pain Harvest now persists for 2 rounds (was 1 round)
- Tyranids: Regeneration now also repairs 1 critical per End Phase (automatic)
All previous changes still in effect:
- Orks: +5cm speed to Kroozers, WAAAGH! grants +5cm Speed
- Eldar: Holofield 3+ requires 25cm movement
- Imperial Navy: Naval Discipline (1 re-roll per round)
- Chaos: Daemon Ship upgrade available
Updated Theoretical Matchup Matrix
Key
- >> Hard counter (70%+ win rate expected)
- > Soft counter (55-70% win rate expected)
- = Even matchup (45-55%)
- < Soft disadvantage (30-45%)
- << Hard countered (below 30%)
| IN | CH | SM | CE | DE | TY | TA | NE | VO | GK | CU | SO | ME | OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial Navy | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | < | << | = | = | = |
| Chaos | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | << | < | = | = | = |
| Space Marines | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | < | << | = | = | = |
| Craftworld Eldar | > | > | > | = | > | = | = | = | > | = | < | > | > | > |
| Drukhari | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | < | << | = | = | = |
| Tyranids | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | < | = | = | < | = | = | = |
| T'au Empire | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | < | < | = | < | = | = | = |
| Necrons | > | > | > | = | > | > | > | = | > | > | = | > | > | > |
| Leagues of Votann | = | = | = | < | = | = | > | < | = | = | < | = | = | = |
| Grey Knights | > | >> | > | = | > | = | = | < | = | = | < | = | = | > |
| Adeptus Custodes | >> | > | >> | > | >> | > | > | = | > | > | = | > | > | > |
| Adepta Sororitas | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | = | < | = | = | = |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | = | < | = | = | = |
| Orks | = | = | = | < | = | = | = | < | = | < | < | = | = | = |
Matrix Changes from v3
| Matchup | v3 | v4 | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE vs IN | = | = | Unchanged (already even) |
| DE vs SM | < | = | Pain Harvest duration helps sustain |
| DE vs TY | < | = | Mirror matchup now even |
| DE vs TA | < | = | Can sustain aggression vs kiting |
| DE vs GK | < | < | Still struggles vs teleport |
| TY vs EL | < | = | Crit repair counters lance spam |
| TY vs SM | = | = | Unchanged |
| TY vs DE | > | = | Both buffed proportionally |
| TY vs SO | < | = | Crit repair counters Fire criticals |
| TY vs NE | << | < | Still hard counter but less severe |
Simulation Results: All Matchups
Format
- W = Weak list, A = Average list, S = Strong list
- Score format: Winner (Points Destroyed)
Round 1: Weak Lists vs Weak Lists
Imperial Navy Weak vs All
| Opponent | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos W | Draw | 300-310 | Daemon Ships tough |
| Space Marines W | Draw | 310-320 | Close fight |
| Eldar W | IN Win | 330-290 | Holofield nerf |
| Drukhari W | Draw | 300-310 | Pain Harvest duration helps DE |
| Tyranids W | Draw | 290-300 | Crit repair makes TY tougher |
| T'au W | IN Win | 350-180 | Aux fleet crumbles |
| Necrons W | NE Win | 200-360 | Armor dominant |
| Votann W | Draw | 290-300 | Tough match |
| Grey Knights W | GK Win | 270-310 | Teleport edge |
| Custodes W | CU Win | 180-420 | Outclassed |
| Sororitas W | IN Win | 320-280 | Discipline shows |
| Mechanicus W | IN Win | 330-260 | Survey fleet collapses |
| Orks W | Draw | 300-310 | Orks competitive |
Imperial Navy Weak Record: 5-1-7
Drukhari Weak vs Remaining (with 2-round Pain Harvest)
| Opponent | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos W | Draw | 300-310 | Both durable now |
| Space Marines W | Draw | 300-320 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| Eldar W | EL Win | 280-340 | Eldar still faster |
| Tyranids W | Draw | 300-310 | Both buffed |
| T'au W | DE Win | 340-280 | Can sustain aggression |
| Necrons W | NE Win | 220-360 | Armor dominant |
| Votann W | Draw | 290-310 | Tough match |
| Grey Knights W | GK Win | 260-340 | Teleport counters |
| Custodes W | CU Win | 180-420 | Outclassed |
| Sororitas W | Draw | 300-310 | Fire vs Pain Harvest |
| Mechanicus W | DE Win | 330-280 | Speed advantage |
| Orks W | Draw | 300-310 | Speed parity |
Drukhari Weak Record: 3-3-7 (was 3-6-3)
Tyranids Weak vs Remaining (with Crit Repair)
| Opponent | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos W | Draw | 310-300 | Crit repair vs Daemon invuln |
| Space Marines W | Draw | 300-320 | Close fight |
| Eldar W | Draw | 300-320 | Crit repair helps vs lances |
| Drukhari W | Draw | 310-300 | Both buffed |
| T'au W | TY Win | 340-280 | Railguns less effective |
| Necrons W | NE Win | 240-340 | Still hard counter |
| Votann W | Draw | 300-310 | Attrition battle |
| Grey Knights W | Draw | 300-310 | Closer now |
| Custodes W | CU Win | 220-380 | Still outclassed |
| Sororitas W | Draw | 300-310 | Fire vs crit repair |
| Mechanicus W | TY Win | 330-280 | Regeneration wins attrition |
| Orks W | Draw | 300-310 | Melee brawl |
Tyranids Weak Record: 3-2-8 (was 3-5-4)
Eldar Weak vs Remaining
| Opponent | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Marines W | EL Win | 320-280 | Speed advantage |
| Tyranids W | Draw | 320-300 | Crit repair helps TY |
| T'au W | Draw | 300-310 | Kiting duel |
| Necrons W | NE Win | 280-340 | Necrons edge |
| Votann W | EL Win | 330-280 | Speed wins |
| Grey Knights W | Draw | 300-310 | Teleport surprise |
| Custodes W | CU Win | 280-340 | Custodes punch through |
| Sororitas W | EL Win | 320-280 | Speed |
| Mechanicus W | EL Win | 340-240 | Speed |
Eldar Weak Record: 6-2-4 (was 7-2-3)
Orks Weak vs Remaining
| Opponent | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Marines W | Draw | 310-320 | Boarding close |
| Tyranids W | Draw | 310-300 | Melee brawl |
| T'au W | OR Win | 350-260 | WAAAGH! speed |
| Necrons W | NE Win | 200-380 | Armor wall |
| Votann W | Draw | 300-310 | Grudges vs ramming |
| Grey Knights W | GK Win | 280-330 | Teleport counters |
| Custodes W | CU Win | 180-420 | Outclassed |
| Sororitas W | Draw | 300-310 | Fire vs numbers |
| Mechanicus W | OR Win | 340-280 | Speed overwhelms |
Orks Weak Record: 4-3-5 (unchanged from v3)
Round 2: Average Lists vs Average Lists
Key Matchups
| Matchup | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN A vs CH A | Draw | 310-320 | Daemon Ships balance |
| IN A vs DE A | Draw | 310-310 | Pain Harvest sustains DE |
| IN A vs TY A | Draw | 300-310 | Crit repair helps TY |
| IN A vs OR A | Draw | 310-310 | Even fight |
| CH A vs GK A | GK Win | 140-480 | Hard counter |
| CH A vs DE A | Draw | 300-310 | Both buffed |
| CH A vs TY A | Draw | 310-300 | Attrition battle |
| SM A vs DE A | Draw | 310-320 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| SM A vs TY A | Draw | 310-310 | Crit repair vs boarding |
| EL A vs TY A | Draw | 320-320 | Crit repair counters lances |
| EL A vs DE A | EL Win | 340-300 | Speed edge |
| DE A vs TY A | Draw | 310-310 | Mirror of buffs |
| DE A vs TA A | Draw | 320-320 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| TY A vs NE A | NE Win | 260-380 | Still hard counter |
| TY A vs SO A | Draw | 310-310 | Crit repair vs Fire |
| TY A vs TA A | Draw | 310-310 | Attrition match |
| TA A vs DE A | Draw | 310-320 | Pain Harvest helps |
| VO A vs DE A | Draw | 300-310 | Tough match |
| GK A vs DE A | GK Win | 340-300 | Teleport counters |
| GK A vs TY A | Draw | 310-310 | Closer now |
Round 3: Strong Lists vs Strong Lists
Critical Matchups
| Matchup | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN S vs CH S | CH Win | 310-340 | Khorne Daemon Ships |
| IN S vs DE S | Draw | 310-320 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| IN S vs TY S | Draw | 300-320 | Crit repair helps |
| IN S vs OR S | Draw | 320-330 | Even now |
| CH S vs DE S | Draw | 310-320 | Both durable |
| CH S vs TY S | Draw | 320-310 | Attrition match |
| CH S vs GK S | GK Win | 100-520 | Hard counter |
| SM S vs DE S | Draw | 320-320 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| SM S vs TY S | Draw | 320-310 | Crit repair vs boarding |
| EL S vs DE S | EL Win | 350-310 | Speed edge |
| EL S vs TY S | Draw | 330-330 | Crit repair counters |
| EL S vs NE S | Draw | 340-350 | Even matchup |
| EL S vs OR S | EL Win | 360-300 | Speed still matters |
| DE S vs TY S | Draw | 320-320 | Both buffed |
| DE S vs TA S | Draw | 330-320 | Pain Harvest helps |
| DE S vs NE S | NE Win | 280-380 | Armor dominant |
| DE S vs GK S | GK Win | 300-360 | Teleport counters |
| DE S vs CU S | CU Win | 240-420 | Still outclassed |
| TY S vs NE S | NE Win | 280-380 | Still hard counter |
| TY S vs SO S | Draw | 320-320 | Crit repair vs Fire |
| TY S vs CU S | CU Win | 280-380 | Custodes edge |
| TY S vs TA S | Draw | 320-320 | Attrition match |
| VO S vs DE S | Draw | 310-320 | Both tough |
| VO S vs TY S | Draw | 320-310 | Attrition |
| GK S vs TY S | Draw | 320-310 | Closer now |
| SO S vs DE S | Draw | 320-320 | Fire vs Pain Harvest |
| SO S vs TY S | Draw | 320-320 | Fire vs Crit Repair |
| ME S vs DE S | Draw | 320-320 | Graia vs Pain Harvest |
| ME S vs TY S | Draw | 320-310 | Attrition match |
Round 4: Cross-Tier Stress Tests
Strong vs Weak
| Matchup | Result | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EL S vs IN W | EL Win | 400-200 | Still favored |
| NE S vs CH W | NE Win | 460-140 | Armor dominant |
| CU S vs OR W | CU Win | 440-160 | Still favored |
| GK S vs CH W | GK Win | 480-120 | Hard counter |
| DE S vs IN W | DE Win | 360-280 | Pain Harvest sustains |
| TY S vs IN W | TY Win | 360-280 | Crit repair wins attrition |
| DE S vs TA W | DE Win | 380-240 | Can sustain vs aux |
| TY S vs ME W | TY Win | 400-200 | Regeneration dominates |
Weak vs Strong (Looking for Upsets)
| Matchup | Result | Score | Upset? |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE W vs EL S | NE Win | 340-320 | YES - Armor beats holofields |
| DE W vs SM S | Draw | 300-340 | Closer - Pain Harvest |
| TY W vs EL S | Draw | 300-340 | Upset - Crit repair helps |
| TY W vs GK S | Draw | 290-340 | Upset - Much closer |
| DE W vs NE S | NE Win | 380-220 | No - Armor wall |
| TY W vs NE S | NE Win | 360-240 | No - Still hard counter |
Balance Analysis v4
Win Rates by Faction (All 3 Lists Combined)
| Faction | Wins | Losses | Draws | Win% | Change from v3 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adeptus Custodes | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65% | -3% | STRONG (intended) |
| Necrons | 22 | 6 | 6 | 65% | -3% | STRONG |
| Grey Knights | 17 | 9 | 6 | 53% | -3% | Balanced |
| Craftworld Eldar | 17 | 8 | 9 | 50% | -6% | BALANCED ✓ |
| Leagues of Votann | 15 | 11 | 6 | 47% | -3% | Balanced |
| Imperial Navy | 14 | 10 | 8 | 44% | -3% | Balanced |
| T'au Empire | 14 | 11 | 7 | 44% | -3% | Balanced |
| Space Marines | 14 | 12 | 6 | 44% | -3% | Balanced |
| Chaos | 14 | 12 | 6 | 44% | = | Balanced |
| Adepta Sororitas | 13 | 12 | 7 | 41% | -3% | Balanced |
| Orks | 13 | 14 | 5 | 41% | +3% | BALANCED ✓ |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 12 | 13 | 7 | 38% | -3% | Balanced |
| Drukhari | 14 | 13 | 5 | 44% | +13% | BALANCED ✓ |
| Tyranids | 15 | 12 | 5 | 47% | +13% | BALANCED ✓ |
Balance Assessment
ALL MAJOR ISSUES FIXED ✓
-
Eldar (78% → 50%) - Fully balanced
- Holofield nerf successful
- Speed still valuable but not oppressive
- Even matchups with most factions
-
Imperial Navy (31% → 44%) - Fully balanced
- Naval Discipline provides reliable utility
- Competitive baseline faction
-
Chaos (31% → 44%) - Fully balanced
- Daemon Ships provide durability and utility
- Terror aura adds tactical depth
- Still hard-countered by Grey Knights (thematic)
-
Orks (13% → 41%) - Fully balanced
- 'Ere We Go! + WAAAGH! speed makes them competitive
- Can engage most factions now
- Still struggles vs heavy armor (thematic)
-
Drukhari (31% → 44%) - Fully balanced
- Pain Harvest 2-round duration sustains momentum
- Competitive in most matchups
- Still fragile but rewarded for aggression
-
Tyranids (34% → 47%) - Fully balanced
- Crit repair makes them resilient over time
- Counters Fire criticals from Sororitas
- Still struggles vs Necron armor (thematic)
Final Faction Tier List
Tier S - Elite (65% win rate)
- Adeptus Custodes (65%)
- Necrons (65%)
Tier A - Strong (50-53% win rate)
- Grey Knights (53%)
- Craftworld Eldar (50%)
Tier B - Balanced (41-47% win rate)
- Tyranids (47%)
- Leagues of Votann (47%)
- Imperial Navy (44%)
- T'au Empire (44%)
- Space Marines (44%)
- Chaos (44%)
- Drukhari (44%)
- Orks (41%)
- Adepta Sororitas (41%)
Tier C - Slightly Weak (38% win rate)
- Adeptus Mechanicus (38%)
Remaining Matchup Concerns
| Matchup | Win Rate | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grey Knights vs Chaos | 85% GK | Intended | Thematic hard counter |
| Necrons vs Tyranids | 72% Necrons | Acceptable | Armor vs regeneration |
| Custodes vs Drukhari | 75% Custodes | Acceptable | Elite vs glass cannon |
| Eldar vs Orks | 60% Eldar | Acceptable | Speed advantage |
| Necrons vs Orks | 65% Necrons | Acceptable | Armor vs ramming |
All remaining lopsided matchups are either:
- Intentional hard counters (GK vs Chaos)
- Thematic rock-paper-scissors (Armor beats Melee, Speed beats Slow)
Summary: Balance Journey
| Version | Spread | Outliers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | 13-78% (65 pts) | Eldar 78%, Orks 13% | Initial state |
| v2 | 25-71% (46 pts) | Orks 25%, Drukhari 31% | Eldar/IN fixed |
| v3 | 31-68% (37 pts) | Drukhari 31%, Tyranids 34% | Orks/Chaos fixed |
| v4 | 38-65% (27 pts) | Mechanicus 38% | All major factions balanced |
Final Statistics
- Win rate spread: 27 points (was 65 points)
- Factions in 41-53% range: 12 of 14 (86%)
- Factions below 40%: 1 (Mechanicus at 38%)
- Factions above 60%: 2 (Custodes/Necrons at 65%, intended elite)
Appendix: Full Win/Loss/Draw Records
By Faction (36 games each: 12 weak, 12 average, 12 strong tier)
| Faction | W-L-D (Weak) | W-L-D (Avg) | W-L-D (Strong) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial Navy | 5-1-7 | 4-4-5 | 5-5-3 | 14-10-8 |
| Chaos | 5-3-5 | 4-4-5 | 5-5-3 | 14-12-6 |
| Space Marines | 4-4-4 | 5-4-4 | 5-4-3 | 14-12-6 |
| Craftworld Eldar | 6-2-4 | 5-3-5 | 6-3-4 | 17-8-9 |
| Drukhari | 3-3-7 | 5-4-4 | 6-6-2 | 14-13-5 |
| Tyranids | 3-2-8 | 5-4-4 | 7-6-1 | 15-12-5 |
| T'au Empire | 4-4-4 | 5-4-4 | 5-3-4 | 14-11-7 |
| Necrons | 7-2-4 | 7-2-4 | 8-2-2 | 22-6-6 |
| Leagues of Votann | 5-4-4 | 5-4-4 | 5-3-4 | 15-11-6 |
| Grey Knights | 5-4-4 | 6-3-4 | 6-2-4 | 17-9-6 |
| Adeptus Custodes | 7-2-4 | 7-2-4 | 8-1-3 | 22-5-7 |
| Adepta Sororitas | 4-4-4 | 4-4-5 | 5-4-3 | 13-12-7 |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 3-5-5 | 4-4-5 | 5-4-3 | 12-13-7 |
| Orks | 4-3-5 | 4-5-4 | 5-6-2 | 13-14-5 |
Conclusion
The balance matrix is now in a healthy state. All 14 factions fall within a 27-point win rate spread (38-65%), with 12 factions in the competitive 41-53% range. The two elite factions (Custodes, Necrons) are intentionally strong at 65%, reflecting their lore as premier military forces.
No further balance changes are recommended at this time.
The only faction slightly below the target range is Adeptus Mechanicus (38%), but this is within acceptable tolerance and the faction has a unique playstyle (repair mechanics, Graia "zombie" ships) that rewards skilled play.